End of the trail?

Alan Cai

November 1, 2024

Giant political rallies occupying enormous sports stadiums featuring thousands of jubilant supporters: as Tuesday, November 5th nears, that’s what’s occupying the majority of the two major party candidates’ time as they conclude their arduous trek through the crucial swing states throughout the country. Tonight, Trump and Harris will hold dueling rallies in Milwaukee, the largest city in the swing state of Wisconsin. Although their speeches will be among the final pitches they make to voters this cycle, I would conjecture that they may be one of the last major political rallies ever.

Political rallies have been a hallmark of American elections since the inception of the political process. From the earliest stump speeches to the turn of the 20th-century front porch campaigns and modern rallies, candidates delivering candid or energetic remarks to crowds of onlookers and supporters have always dominated the campaign trail. However, we have reason to believe that such strategies may be outdated and phased out in the coming election cycles.

With the nomination and election of President Obama in 2008, the nation witnessed the influence of social media in digital-age presidential elections. In the races — both presidential and local — that followed, social media and digital presences played a role arguably larger than campaign speeches or even press coverage. Although Trump’s successful 2016 campaign appeared to rejuvenate the huge-rallies concept, he was, even more so, a social — part of the trend rather than an anomaly.

In 2020, the world was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent shutdowns. In-person rallies became not only infeasible but also impossible to do in large swaths of the country. Thus, both major party candidates were forced to rely on digital campaigning options to supplant what would otherwise have been another grueling campaign season.

2024 brings an interesting new dynamic to the campaigning world. The majority of the campaign season was spent as a rematch between the Trump and Biden camps, the first such rematch since Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and 1956. Thus, with voters already very familiar with the backgrounds, positions, and attitudes of the two candidates, in-person campaigning and perhaps campaigning as a whole were largely fruitless. With the introduction of Kamala Harris late into the race, both campaigns revamped their strategies and began to invest more in rallies and campaign stops.

Yet, even with a new candidate present in the race, political rallies still serve minimal purpose. Rallies are unlikely to reach any new voters, provide more opportunities to misspeak than deliver memorable and powerful moments, and are largely uncovered by the press unless something remarkably negative occurs. As evident by the attempted assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, rallies also pose a security risk to candidates. One of the main advantages of political rallies is that they bring the candidate to the people and make them more approachable. However, larger rallies could have the adverse effect of making the candidate feel more distant and unapproachable while smaller rallies run the risk of exposing a candidate’s social eccentricities or other oddities to otherwise oblivious audiences.

Political rallies may soon be a thing of the past. Campaigns will undoubtedly find a plethora of replacement options but given the risks associated with large rallies and the minimal benefits gained, candidates will soon come to realize that their logistical costs outweigh their practical utility.