RFK drops out, and why it doesn't matter

Alan Cai

August 23, 2024

Earlier today, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — son of former US Attorney General and Senator RFK Sr., nephew of former president JFK, and member of the prominent Kennedy political clan — suspended his long-shot third-party bid for president of the United States and endorsed former president Donald Trump. His platform and independent appeal were based on his anti-vaccination stance, anti-Ukrainian involvement position, and advocacy for climate change reduction measures.

RFK Jr. was considered a fringe candidate when he launched his bid to challenge incumbent president Joe Biden using a set of ideals that was more conservative than modern Democrats are accustomed to. However, Kennedy’s campaign initially received favorable polling and was even considered a threat to Biden’s reelection largely thanks to his last name. However, after seeing no viable path to the nomination, he continued his bid as an independent candidate until today.

After RFK Jr. dropped out and pledged his support to Trump, the latter touted the Kennedy family member’s support and hinted at a possible position for him in his administration. Considering RFK Jr.’s ideological differences with Trump and the former president's high emphasis on loyalty, it is still unclear what kind of role RFK Jr. would play in a hypothetical Trump presidency.

Nevertheless, Trump’s presidential ambitions do not hinge at all on this endorsement, which barely moves the needle in the grand scheme of the elections. In fact, as with all of Trump’s presidential campaigns in the past, his success and failure have solely relied on his own fortunes, behaviors, and mistakes. In 2016, his candidacy was nearly sunk by the resurfacing of a 2005 recording of an interview with Access Hollywood host Billy Bush (a member of the Bush political clan), during which he made several egregious and offensive comments about women. In 2020, his campaign, which was widely considered an extremely favorable one at the year’s beginning, slumped as the year progressed due to Trump’s controversial handling of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the racial justice demonstrations following the killing of George Floyd. Elections that pit Trump against an establishment opponent depend on whether or not Trump can adequately minimize his weaknesses and avoid controversies, a difficulty considering his demeanor has been built upon his rash behavior and commentary.

Trump’s fatal mistake for the 2024 presidential election thus far was the nomination of Ohio Senator JD Vance for VP. JD Vance’s political experience (or lack thereof), past comments about women, awkwardness in public, limited ideological balancing value, and rumors surrounding his personal life have all clouded his outlook as a VP pick. In fact, while many running mates throughout history bring a polling boost to the ticket, it appears that Vance may prove to be a liability instead. Only time will tell the utility of JD Vance as Trump’s campaign partner but as of now, all signs point to a ship leading to failure. With Vance as first mate, Trump’s Titanic will not cruise to victory.