What went wrong?
November 8, 2024
30 minutes.
That’s the amount of time it takes to walk from the Empire State Building to Central Park. It’s also the amount of time it took for Joe Biden to name Kamala Harris as his successor after announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race in late July. Harris quickly received the endorsement of the Democratic Party’s most prominent leaders, including potential challengers such as California Governor Gavin Newsom. Harris’s rapid ascent to the top of the political world, spurred by strong media reception, fueled widespread confidence for a successful presidential bid. Even as the election day neared, the enthusiasm, although somewhat waned, remained strong: several leading political forecasters predicted a sweeping candidate for the 60-year-old Californian. Yet, on election day, the Democrats lost by a surprising margin.
This should not have happened.
Trump should have been an easy candidate to beat. His debating skill, one of his biggest advantages in previous cycles, was visibly less robust than it had been during his Golden Escalator run or even his 2020 run. His attacks relied more on dog whistles (search “they’re eating the dogs”) than sharp quips (search “because you’d be in jail”). He and his proxies frequently employed racist language that alienated key demographics he was attempting to make inroads to including the African American community, Hispanic community, Asian community, and women. Rhetoric aside, his record is arguably one of the most blemished of any presidential candidate in American history. No other major party candidate has ever been impeached twice, convicted of 34 charges, or faced the possibility of prison time if not elected. Nonetheless, the biggest weakness of the Trump candidacy may have been his behavior following his 2020 defeat: he called the election fraudulent without providing evidence, refused to concede the election, and launched an insurrection against the US capitol. Trump should not have been allowed to run again for president of the United States purely based on the fact that he is a danger to the democratic process.
Harris, on the other hand, was relatively free from any major political scandals and seemed like a perfect younger alternative to the much older Biden. Nevertheless, it was the swiftness of Harris’s nomination that triggered the Democrats’ defeat. Without running any formal primary process, the optics made Harris’s candidacy appear as a power grab by the party’s influential elite. The people had no choice in the process of selecting Harris, so it was difficult for Democrats to root for her. The fact that Harris minimized her interviews and heavily relied on scripted lines further dispelled any notion that she was a grassroots candidate. The nail in the coffin came when the media coalesced around her by giving her overwhelming positive press and giving her softball questions. The campaign felt like the establishment cooked up a recipe and the media shoved it down voters’ throats. Americans prefer choosing a candidate, not being handed one on a silver platter. There is little doubt that Harris could have won a mini-primary if one occurred. But the fact that it didn’t happen tanked her chances.
The 2024 election was a repeat of 1948’s Dewey vs. Truman, except this time, the incumbent Democrat didn’t win.