Who just won in Venezuela?

Alan Cai

August 2, 2024

Edmundo González Urrutia is widely believed to have won the election in Venezuela against incumbent Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whose administration has been described as an authoritarian regime. Opposition candidate González Urrutia, who recently came out of retirement to run against Maduro is reported to have won with a percentage of 66% to Maduro’s 31%, according to polling sheets the opposition claimed to have been obtained from 80% of polling stations. Maduro’s regime has refused to publish polling breakdowns, breaking convention from previous cycles, but has claimed to win with a 51% majority with state-backed platforms concurring.

In an apparent bow to international coercion and questions surrounding the legitimacy of his election, Maduro asked the South American nation’s top judicial court, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, to audit the election results. However, international watchdogs have decried the move as insufficient, given the high court's ties to the regime and association with Maduro’s ruling United Socialist Party. In light of recent developments in election results, numerous global actors have heightened the diplomatic pressure by recognizing Edmundo González Urrutia as the rightful election winner. Such parties include US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Brazilian President Lula da Silva, and the governments of Argentina, Peru, and Uruguay. It is important to note that just because these countries recognize González Urrutia as the victor does not necessarily mean they will recognize him as the inflation-ridden nation’s leader as he has yet to be duly sworn in or declared president by any domestic authority.

The present situation draws similarities with the Venezuelan presidential crisis which roughly lasted between 2019 and 2022 during which federal deputy to the National Assembly Juan Guaidó was elected by the body as interim president of Venezuela following another discombobulated election— challenging Maduro’s legitimacy. Guaidó was recognized as president by many other countries, including the United States, but was later removed by the assembly. If the 2024 election follows a similar trajectory, de facto power in Venezuela will still likely remain in Maduro’s hands as international bodies jostle with each other over whom to recognize.

The crux of the issue lies not in whom other countries believe should reside in the presidential palace, but rather the ultimate outcome for the Venezuelan people. The quasi-socialist authoritarian regime which ruled Venezuela since the era of Hugo Chavez has left common citizens of the oil-rich country in poverty and has plunged the nation into socio-economic turmoil. Venezuelans reportedly have little trust in their monetary system and often resort to bartering to trade goods, severely stumping its economic growth. Since the citizens of the Bolivarian Republic chose to begin anew with a new leader, their wishes should be heeded and a peaceful transition of power ought to be enabled.