Diplomatic Solution in Ukraine Unlikely

Alan Cai

February 14, 2025

US President Donald Trump indicated on Thursday interest in meeting with embattled Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to kick start peace talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian War. Trump did not appear to invite Ukraine or other European stakeholders to any summit with Putin. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenkyy indicated that his country would not accept any peace agreement without its presence at the negotiating table and other European powers have echoed similar disapproval at news of their omission.

Regardless of what Trump offers to Putin, the reality of the predicament is that a diplomatic peace agreement, regardless of who negotiates it, is impractical and becomes more difficult as the war drags on. Any agreement the West agrees upon must favor Ukraine as it has received widespread Western support from the moment Russia invaded in 2022. Additionally, considering Ukraine’s defiance of early defeat predictions and the humiliation of the Russian army, whose weakness despite its numerical advantage throughout the war was on full display, Ukraine rightfully deserves the upper hand. Russia, and not Ukraine, needs a peace agreement the most to rebuild its economy and revive its lost international standing and reputation. Hampered by years of tough Western sanctions, Russia, whose citizens didn’t fully support the war in the first place, needs an end to the economic suffering.

Ukraine is arguably hit worse by the war than Russia in terms of economic output. The so-called “Breadbasket of Europe” all but ceased nearly all economic activity during the war to focus on defense. Despite Ukraine’s poorer economic situation, Ukraine is less pressured to negotiate than Russia. Firstly, due to the influx of aid from Europe and North America, Ukraine’s leadership can be assured that its economy will not collapse no matter how long the war lasts. Secondly, Ukraine was the victim of aggression and so its people will not fault the government for their dire circumstances. Few Ukrainian citizens would pressure their government to sue for peace because their economy has turned to shambles. Finally, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s handling of the war has been viewed largely favorably, and because Ukraine’s morale is likely better than Russia’s Ukraine may be more able to stomach a prolonged war.

This is not to suggest that this war is good for Ukraine — thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have died and thousands more will perish if the war does not end, but in terms of who has the higher ground in negotiations, Ukraine takes the cake.

As a world superpower and nuclear country, Russia will not cave to any Ukrainian demands. Especially considering the fact it expended so many resources and men in the war, Putin will not concede anything, and will not agree to walk away empty-handed. Even a formal international recognition of Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea (a bargaining point that would scarcely be considered by Western powers), would make Russia appear defeated. Unless significant swathes of Ukrainian territory are ceded, Putin will not sign any agreement — he has no reason to settle for less. Yet, the land is not something Ukraine is willing to give up. Thus, the Russo-Ukrainian War will likely end in a fashion similar to that of the Korean War: an unstable military demarcation line accompanied by no formal treaty or multilateral recognition.