Putin today
June 28, 2024
When it comes to threatening NATO, Putin has taken it to another level. Putin has proven that he can hurt the U.S. and NATO in ways far beyond the Ukrainian conflict, starting with reviving a Cold War-era mutual defense pact with North Korea. Following a quick trip to North Korea and Vietnam, and blaming the U.S. for loosening restrictions on Ukrainian usage of Western weapons, the Russian leader has brought Russia and NATO to a new, eye-to-eye level of tension over Ukraine. In addition, Putin referencing Russia’s possibility of engaging in nuclear war alarms Western officials more than ever.
It is not the first time that Russia has put the West in such a tight and sensitive position. When he ordered a full-scale invasion in 2022, he warned that any interference with his “plans” would be met with severe and unrecoverable consequences. Prioritizing the avoidance of nuclear war in the Ukrainian conflict, this threat pushed the Biden administration to hold back on sophisticated, military engagement.
Some argue that this act prevented Ukraine from achieving victory in the early stages of the conflict. However, supporters reason that the West’s decision to keep weapons down prevented Russia from triggering an all-out conflict. The allies’ tactic of gradually providing Ukraine with advanced technology and weapons is what kept the conflict down.
However, recently, Ukraine was granted permission to exercise Western technology into Russia for defense against cross-border attacks. This was not heard well by Putin, who has, since then, repeatedly referred to his nuclear strength and other acts of retaliation against NATO.
Western officials say that Putin actually executing his nuclear plan is unlikely, given Russia’s unchanged nuclear position. However, Putin has made it clear that Russia’s foreign policy is designed to embrace war. Taking Pyongyang as an example, Putin develops relationships with other countries only to gain support for Russia’s military, and to antagonize the U.S. and the whole of NATO. With this, Putin is eagerly willing to arm North Korea and the Houthis—Shiite militants, who attack U.S. equipment in the Red Sea.
Many believe that U.S. officials are too sucked in to the possibility of Putin’s nuclear escalation and are not aware of the other ways in which Putin is escalating. Given this, experts in Moscow discuss the likelihood of cyber or space attacks. Experts also take into account that rogue arms transfers and sabotage attacks are also signs that Putin is trying to threaten the allies. Although a nuclear retaliation is proven unlikely, officials have to keep an eye out for any new and subtle signs of Putin’s aggression.