A Blow to Biden: The First 2024 General Election Presidential Debate
June 28, 2024
Thursday, Americans watched as Former President Trump and President Biden faced off in the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election cycle. Occurring remarkably early in the race, the debate has invoked significant concern. While many viewed both Trump’s and Biden’s performances negatively, the challenges Biden faced in asserting himself as cognitively capable and present may have proven quite beneficial to the Trump campaign.
CNN performed a flash poll indicating that by two to one, or 67% to 33%, audiences viewed Trump as having the better performance of the two. Biden faced some damaging moments, especially relating to making unclear responses. At one point, Trump responded to one confusing response from Biden, saying, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.” To make matters worse, throughout the night, Biden often exhibited extreme facial reactions and stares that audiences could have viewed as cognitive difficulties or confusion.
President Trump lied repeatedly, with CNN asserting he made over 30 false claims. Fortunately for the Trump campaign, audiences likely paid closer attention to signs that concerns over President Biden’s fitness might be rooted in a very realchallenge for the eighty-one-year-old incumbent. In CNN’s post-debate analysis coverage, panelists amplified each other’s concerns. John King warned, “There is a deep, a wide and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic party.”
Former President Obama took to X, formerly Twitter, to back President Biden, defending, “Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.” The New York Times editorial board was not so supportive, urging President Biden to drop out of the race on Friday.
The Trump campaign, on the other hand, rejoiced, with a news release on the website titled, “ICYMI: ‘Trump Outmaneuvers Weakened Biden with Master Class Debate Performance.’” A 538/Ipsos poll affirms cause for concern among Biden supporters, finding that, post-debate, Biden saw the percentage of likely voters considering casting their ballot for him fall one and a half percentage points, while Trump saw his number jump four-tenths of a percentage point. It is worth noting, however, that, even post-debate, Biden’s percentage was still higher than Trump’s in the 538/Ipsos poll, with Biden at 46.7% considering and Trump at 43.9%.
Nevertheless, Biden’s lead in the percentage of those considering voting for him has not been reflected in many of the recent national election polls. A pre-debate New York Times/Siena College national poll put Trump at 39%, with Biden well behind at 32%, followed by a distant Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 9%. Ultimately, the election is still several months out, and President Biden likely has more than enough time to move forward and recover. Whether voters are willing to look past concerns regarding his age and cognition is unclear and will likely not truly be clear until November 5.