If President Biden Leaves the Race

Ryan Heshmati

July 5, 2024

President Biden’s re-election campaign is in serious trouble. A recent Cygnal national poll put Trump at 43.5%, compared to Biden’s 38.1%. With many voters very concerned about Biden’s cognitive state, many Democrats may be hoping that Biden is replaced at the top of the ticket. While President Biden has made it very clear he intends to run, it is unclear whether pressure from within the party could concentrate enough to change his mind. Even if he leaves the race, however, the Democrats do not have a clear, stellar, and willing alternative.

Among polls of alternative candidates, Former First Lady Michelle Obama fairs incredibly well. Reuters reports on a Reuters/Ipsos poll that gave Obama a double-digit lead over Trump. Unfortunately for Michelle Obama hopefuls, CNBC’s Mike Memoli highlights what she has previously said about politics: “It’s got to be in your soul, because it is so important. It is not in my soul.”

Beyond Michelle Obama, among candidates who are likely far more willing to join the race if called upon, none demonstrate the strength needed to beat Donald Trump, according to the Reuters/Ipsos polling. The poll has both Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom trailing Former President Trump, albeit Harris by a smaller margin than Newsom. Neither of the two Democrats are viewed particularly favorably by voters. Harris,according to a poll by The Economist and YouGov, is viewed unfavorably by 55% of adults. The poll also found that a sizable 30% don’t know if they view Newsom favorably or not, but of those who took a position, it went from 40% unfavorable to 30% favorable.

While the Democrats may not have many current politicians in their ranks who would guarantee them the election, President Biden certainly might cost them it. According to sources of ABC News’ Tal Axelrod, “West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin was prepared to call on the president to step aside after his debate performance last week -- only to be talked out of it by senior Democrats…” With President Biden’s support eroding, Democrats need to take a serious look at their options if they seek to keep Former President Trump out of the White House. While many might point to Biden’s vice president as the natural replacement, Vice President Harris is not necessarily a strong choice in such a difficult race for Democrats. Others might look to California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has similar challenges. Of course, President Biden has denied that he will leave the race, but with growing concern about his age and mental acuity, voters will have to wait and see if his position changes.