JD Vance's Political Future

Ryan Heshmati

November 29, 2024

JD Vance has experienced a meteoric rise in American politics. Just a couple of years after joining the world on Capitol Hill as a Senator from Ohio, he will take the office of Vice President of the United States. With Trump constitutionally limited to only two terms in office, some may already be thinking about the 2028 presidential race landscape. With many Democrats watching California Governor Gavin Newsom, Republicans will be in an interesting situation, with their first race in three cycles without Donald J. Trump on the primary ballot. Is JD Vance the clear successor to the MAGA movement and White House? It may not be so simple.

First of all, running for Vice President on a winning ticket does not mean the same results will occur when you take the top slot; just ask Vice President Kamala Harris. In fact, in recent cycles, Vice Presidents have not always had the best of luck trying to ride off the energy of an incumbent president leaving office. While both George H.W. Bush and Joe Biden leaped into the White House after previously serving as Vice President (though not immediately after in Biden’s case), Al Gore and Walter Mondale tried and failed to break through the Vice Presidential ceiling. 

Of course, JD Vance is not Al Gore, nor is he even remotely similar to Walter Mondale. Vance has successfully appealed to Americans, especially Rust Belt voters, with populist messaging, somewhat ironically, though, considering he joined the ranks of the elites by attending Yale Law School. In his debate with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Vance enjoyed a strong performance, with notable discussion reframing the abortion issue, one that was thought to be a major Democratic strength going into the 2024 election. He moved beyond traditional public channels, although he certainly demonstrated no fear of media interviews, and reached a different demographic of podcast watchers with his Joe Rogan appearance. All this to say, Vance has proven himself an apt communicator.

Unfortunately for Vance, his strengths may not be enough to bring him to the presidency in 2028; that ultimate fate might have a lot more to do with how the second Trump presidency goes. If voters in 2028 see Vance as an extension of Trump, for them to feel confident in casting a vote for four more years, they will need to feel good about the last four. President-elect Trump made a lot of promises to get elected, and since this is his second term, the American people can only hold him accountable through subsequent elections. Ultimately, Vance’s political future depends on how the American people receive his running mate’s second term. Vice-President-Elect Vance would be well served to support a successful four years in every way possible since, after all, 2028 will almost certainly prove a referendum on them.