The 2024 Shakeup

Ryan Heshmati

July 26, 2024

This week, President Biden announced that, despite his victory in the primary process, he is not running for a second term. The president went on to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, along with a slew of other high-ranking Democrats. According to the Associated Press, Harris has secured more than enough delegates for the nomination; thus, she is the presumptive Democratic nominee for the presidency. Now, with the radical shift in the race, the uncertainty surrounding the November election has amplified by miles.

With President Biden on the ticket, supporters of Former President Trump were likely eager to get to the finish line, with polling indicating Trump was in a strong position for victory. After this shift on the Democratic ticket, that is unclear. While Trump will most certainly try to argue that Harris and Biden are one and the same, the Trump campaign’s major advantage thus far, fears surrounding Biden’s debate performance and cognitive abilities, is lost with Harris on the ticket.

Even if Harris may be a stronger Democratic nominee than President Biden, a July Emerson College/The Hill poll found that Harris trails Trump in head-to-head polling for many of the swing states. Trump leads in Arizona (49% to 44%), Georgia (48% to 46%), Pennsylvania (48% to 46%), and Michigan (46% to 45%). The two candidates are tied in Wisconsin, with both at 47%. 

Harris is not a particularly popular figure, but neither is Trump. In order to boost her competitiveness in the swing states, Vice President Harris will have to think carefully about her choice in running mate. A VP pick like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro could help Harris in “blue wall” states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which carried Trump to victory in 2016 and did the same for Biden in 2020.

Already a historic election, more and more major shifts continue to pile on. With the most recent, President Biden’s exit from the race, Republicans may be losing the enthusiasm they once had, despite polling that still advantages the Trump campaign. It appears that Vice President Harris has the spotlight and momentum, but does she have enough time? With only a little over three months until election day, the race is in full swing. 

The September debate, previously expected to be between Trump and Biden, is up in the air, however. CNN’s Sam Fossum and Piper Hudspeth Blackburn report that “After Vice President Kamala Harris accused former President Donald Trump of ‘backpedaling’ on a debate, the Trump campaign said Thursday it would not commit to any future debates until the Democratic Party formally chooses a nominee.” Trump did not debate any of his primary challengers earlier in the year but did, of course, face off with President Biden in what ended up being a huge detriment to the Biden campaign.

The 2024 presidential election could bring Trump’s reascension to the Oval Office or the first female president in American history. With Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket, Republicans’ confidence from strong leads against Biden may now be eroding. Trump still holds a lead in many swing states, but Harris has months to make gains. The question now is if she will.