The Uncertainty Behind Another Potential Trump Presidency
October 25, 2024
With more and more data indicating a second Trump term is a real possibility, many are left wondering what that would really look like. So much, in both fierce rhetoric and campaign promises, has come from both Harris and Trump that it remains unclear what will truly become a prioritized policy objective and what will be left behind when one of the two takes the oath of office in January of 2025. The answer is complicated, and the candidates themselves likely do not know, either, since a lot hinges on how races for the Senate and House of Representatives play out on November 5th. For the sake of consideration, let’s assume Trump pulls through in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, winning the presidency. What’s next?
One theory is that Trump would give the reins for the day-to-day to his would-be vice president, JD Vance. This theory assumes that Former President Trump is more interested in avoiding legal problems and obtaining the status of a two-term president rather than running the country again. With JD Vance in charge, for practical purposes, the Ohio Republican would likely pursue a populist agenda. In a major shift for a party often considered the party of big business, Vance has called for protecting American workers and would most likely look to protectionism in order to do so.
There is no evidence, however, that Trump intends to relinquish most control to Vance after winning. Should Former President Trump decide he wants to take an active role in a Trump-Vance administration, the fate of many of his promised economic reforms would hang in the margins of the House and Senate. It seems probable that Trump would attempt to renew the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act he signed during his first term and has said he wants a reduction in the corporate tax rate to 15% for corporations that manufacture their products in the United States, a requirement that would appease the populist camp of the Republican Party that has recently emerged. Of course, these objectives can only be realized if Republicans hold Congress coming out of the election. While the Senate looks poised to transfer into Republican hands, the House of Representatives’ fate is not so clear. On the immigration front, Trump almost certainly wants to pursue an aggressive policy at the border in order to limit unauthorized crossings, considering how significant an issue he has attempted to make immigration during the race. In the past, Trump’s immigration strategies have prompted legal challenges, though the majority Republican-appointed Supreme Court could be more amenable now than when he first took office in 2017.
The Democrats have worked to frame reproductive rights at the center of the election cycle, forcing Republicans to adjust their rhetoric, evidenced by JD Vance’s debate night assertion that Republicans need to earn Americans’ trust on the issue of abortion back. It’s possible that the executive branch would avoid touching the abortion issue under a Trump-Vance administration, as Trump has promised to leave the issue to the states. However, many reproductive rights advocates caution that a history of pro-life Republican politics should not be ignored and that abortion rights are at risk on November 5th.
Not only is there uncertainty as to who will win the presidency in November, but there is also a lack of clarity regarding what the winner’s administration will actually look like. Should Trump win, he could choose to take a less involved role in his second administration. On the other hand, he could stay active and pursue a list of objectives he has spoken about on the campaign trail, the viability of which is obviously rooted in the state of Congress. The abortion issue, a decades-long cause for division in the country, will be particularly important to watch play out should Republicans win big on November 5th. Of course, if Vice President Harris achieves victory instead, these scenarios will all be moot.